Konstantin Tserazov: in the second half of the year the Bank of Russia will reduce the volume of daily currency sales

2024-07-05 23:02:39 Время чтения 6 мин 79
Konstantin Tsearzov

In the week from June 24 to 28, the Moscow Exchange Index grew by 1%, and the RTS Index by 3.9%. Thus, shares of Russian companies have risen in price both in rubles and dollars.

Exchange rates, as well as the Moscow Exchange Index, spent the week in rather narrow ranges. Larger fluctuations in the dollar RTS Index were due to the fact that its dynamics are now determined to a greater extent by changes in the official dollar-ruble exchange rate rather than by intraday fluctuations in the USDRUB, as before.

At the end of the week, “perpetual” futures for USDRUB and EURRUB, which have historically demonstrated the maximum correlation with spot rates, showed a slight increase, adding 0.66% and 0.45%, respectively. But the spot exchange rate of the yuan against the ruble decreased by 2.58%, which should not have happened if recalculated through cross rates on external exchanges. This fact indicates the persistence of some “distortion” in the supply/demand balance of the Chinese currency on the Moscow Exchange in favor of an excess of the latter (or a deficit of the former).

However, the situation here may improve somewhat, because in the second half of the year, the Bank of Russia will reduce the volume of daily currency sales, which are carried out in addition to regular operations of the Ministry of Finance, by 3.4 billion rubles. up to 8.4 billion rubles. This is not too much, considering that the average trading volume in the CNYRUB pair with “tomorrow” settlements noticeably exceeds 100 billion rubles. per day, but in the current circumstances this is not bad, added Konstantin Tserazov.

The main outsiders in May were the sectoral indices of metals and mining (-6.53%), consumer sector (-2.41%) and oil and gas (-1.68%). The best dynamics were shown by the sectoral indices of finance (+3.15%), transport (+2.78%) and construction companies (+0.52%).

The week turned out to be rich in dividend events. As a result of shareholder decisions, the following companies will make payments for 2023: Sollers, Renaissance Insurance, Mosenergo, Sovcombank, Rosneft, Magnit, Bashneft, Surgutneftegaz, Gazprom Neft, Inarctic, MTS, Tatneft.

Shareholders of the following companies decided not to pay dividends: Gazprom, Rusal, Unipro, MGTS, En+ Group, MKB, ChMK, Zaimer, Rusolovo, Norilsk Nickel, Rosseti, Polyus, Rusagro, OVK, Southern Kuzbass, FESCO, MTS-Bank.

According to RBC, the Moscow Exchange will launch trading in settlement futures for the IPO Index in the coming month. At the time of launch, it included 15 issuers, today there are already 17, including four IT companies (Astra, Diasoft, IVA Technologies and Softline). The index looks well diversified, and the upcoming IPOs, the number of which may be 15-25 this year, can diversify it even more (the nearest IPO is VseInstrumenty.ru), added Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov.

An additional attractiveness to this instrument is added by the fact that a significant number of the companies included in it belong to the growth category and operate in the most relevant industries today. These are, of course, IT companies, as well as businesses focused on China. In particular, in the third quarter. the Internet platform for wholesale trade between the Russian Federation and China “Kifa” can be located.

If we talk about specific components of the IPO index, then Softline papers look like an interesting long-term idea. The company plans rapid expansion through M&A transactions, which will be financed through an additional issue (this decision looks logical, given the expensive funding). Over the past month and a half, Softline shares have fallen in price by about a quarter, which approximately corresponds to the scale of capital dilution as part of the additional issue. An aggressive development strategy should contribute to the rapid growth of the company’s financial performance, economist Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov summed up the results of the week.