Konstantin Tserazov: the ruble has strengthened against the dollar, but not against the euro and the yuan

2024-05-08 01:29:21 Время чтения 6 мин 25

Following the results of the holiday four-day trading week of April 29 – May 3, the Moscow Exchange ruble Index decreased by 0.6%, and the RTS dollar index added 0.2%. The first benchmark is less than 1.5% from two-year highs, and the second updated them on Thursday, but then corrected downward.

The ruble rose in price against the dollar, which caused the discrepancy between the Moscow Exchange and RTS indices, and showed neutral dynamics against the euro and the yuan. The Russian currency was supported by the tax period, the extension until the end of April 2025 of the decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by a number of Russian exporters, and the prospect of the Bank of Russia maintaining the key rate at a high level for a long time. The pressure factor was a significant decline in world oil prices against the background of the de-escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as well as the growth of reserves in the United States, Konstantin Tserazov believes.

Gazprom shares fell in price by 5.4% at the end of the week. The company presented a financial report under IFRS for 2023, reflecting the first loss since 1999, which amounted to 629 billion rubles. The reason for this was both a decrease in revenue by 27% y/y and an increase in operating expenses by 15% y/y.

The company can still pay dividends from adjusted net income. At the same time, the volume of payments may be less than 50% of this indicator (RUB 15.3 per share), because the net debt/EBITDA ratio exceeded 2.5x.

LSR shares fell in price on Thursday-Friday by 17.2% after closing the register for dividends for 2023 (yield 8.78% at the close of the session on April 30).

The Moscow Exchange reported an increase in the total trading volume on its markets in April to 124.9 trillion rubles. from 90.3 trillion rubles. a year earlier (+38% y/y). On Thursday, the company's shares reached a new historical high of 237.66 rubles, notes Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov.

Sovcombank presented its financial report under RAS for the first quarter. 2024: net profit decreased by 2.8 times to 11.4 billion rubles, and profit before tax by 2.7 times to 11.58 billion rubles, which was due to the rapid growth of interest expenses relative to interest income. At the end of the week, the bank's shares fell in price by 2.8%, having rolled back from the record levels of early April by 8.1%.

Severstal's net profit under RAS decreased in the first quarter. 2024 by 17.3% y/y to RUB 38.8 billion. despite revenue growth by 23.2% YoY to RUB 181.9 billion. The reason is an increase in cost of sales by 26% YoY to RUB 124.66 billion.

Alrosa shares performed better than the market, adding 1.2% over the week. Investors were encouraged by the company's announcement that it has no plans to reduce production volumes.

The United States has introduced a new package of sanctions against almost 300 companies and individuals, which, according to Washington, are helping Russia circumvent restrictions on the import of technology and equipment. Among them was the Russian IT company Astra, whose shares reacted to this event with a decrease of 2%. However, it was quickly bought back, and the paper closed the week with an increase of 0.5%.

Shares of technology companies continue to show outperforming dynamics: at the end of the week, the Moscow Exchange Information Technologies Index added 1.6%, and since the beginning of the year – 49.1%. The benchmark looks overbought, but IT companies represent the main growth story on the Russian stock market, which makes them attractive for the long term.

The Financial Times reported that the G7 is no longer considering a complete confiscation of Russian assets.

The Fed kept the federal funds rate at 5.25-5.50%, as expected.

However, Treasuries showed strong growth (the decrease in two-year yields from Wednesday's high to Friday's low was about 33 bp) on the news that the Fed would slow down the pace of its balance sheet reduction. In addition, the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, made it clear that the Fed does not plan to raise interest rates. Now the derivatives market takes into account in prices the high probability of a reduction in the federal funds rate this year by 0.50%, sums up Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov.