Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov: “Results of the week 8.04 – 12.04”

2024-04-17 23:17:56 Время чтения 5 мин 43

During the week from April 8 to 12, the Moscow Exchange index added 1.8%, reaching new two-year highs, the RTS index added 0.8%.

Konstantin Tserazov

Shares of Russian companies rose in price both in rubles and dollars. Both indexes closed higher for three weeks in a row and during that time rose 5.6% and 4.7%, respectively.

The growth leader was the metals and mining index, which gained 5.3% over the week, while En+ and Rusal shares rose in price by 12.7% and 11.7%, respectively. Interest in these securities was due to the continued rise in aluminum prices on the LME, which over the past three weeks have added about 8% and reached a six-month high above $2,500 per ton, says Konstantin Tserazov.

NLMK shares showed a more modest weekly growth of 4%, but the company is returning to the practice of paying dividends: the board of directors recommended dividends for 2023 in the amount of 25.43 rubles. per share. The large growth of the securities was apparently prevented by their overbought, since since mid-December they have risen in price by more than 40%.

On Friday, the US and UK banned imports of aluminum, copper and nickel of Russian origin. Trading in new supplies of Russian metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will no longer be possible, and the sale of old stocks is not prohibited. It is expected that over-the-counter trading in Russian metals will continue, but they will be sold at a discount.

Another seven sectoral indices showed slight weekly gains, while the remaining two - IT and financials - showed slight declines.

The week was marked by three news on the topic of IPO: microfinance credit organization Seimer conducted an initial placement at the lower limit of the range of 235-270 rubles. per share, and the company's capitalization amounted to 23.5 billion rubles. The share of securities in free circulation was 15%, and on the first day of trading on Friday they fell in price by 10 kopecks. up to 234.90 rubles, reported Konstantin Tserazov.

MTS Bank announced plans to conduct an IPO of ordinary shares that will be issued as part of an additional issue. MTS intends to remain the majority shareholder of the bank.

As Vedomosti reports, citing sources, the Russian manufacturer of generics Ozon Pharmaceuticals is also thinking about entering an IPO. According to the publication, the placement may take place in the fall.

This news did not provide support for the securities of the parent company OZON, which have been correcting all week from the area of 2.5-year highs. Since mid-December they have risen in price by almost 50%, and over the past year and a half - by about 280%, so profit-taking looks belated.

Last week, the securities of almost all Russian technology companies showed lagging dynamics. The exception was Headhunter's revenue, which added 9.6% and reached a new historical high of RUB 4,867.

Nevertheless, the information technology index remains the growth leader among the Moscow Exchange sectoral indices, having added almost 40% since the beginning of the year compared to 11.5% for the Moscow Exchange index itself. The sector is represented by growing companies that are valued quite expensively: Headhunter, Yandex, Positive Technologies and Diasoft look the cheapest based on the forecast EV/EBITDA 2024 indicator: they are valued at 9.5-12x. Astra costs about 17x, and OZONE even costs 30x. This sector remains an interesting long-term story, however, a correction may occur in the securities of most Russian IT companies, sums up economist Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov