Konstantin Tserazov: “The most likely scenario is lateral movement”

2023-11-28 18:45:14 Время чтения 12 мин 177

The market ended the next week with moderate growth - the former senior vice president of Otkritie Bank, economist Konstantin Tserazov, talks about market dynamics and forecasts for the current week in our interview.

The Moscow Exchange index gained 0.36% in the period from November 20 to November 24, rising to 3217 points, the RTS index grew by 1.9%, to 1143 points. According to Konstantin Tserazov, the domestic market was supported by the return of oil prices to levels above $80 per barrel of Brent, as well as corporate news, positivity on external markets and expectations of dividend payments.

The opening of the week took place against the backdrop of a strengthening of the ruble, the reason for which is the decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency by exporters, the high rate of the Bank of Russia, as well as the upcoming period of tax payments, which creates demand for domestic currency. The strengthening of the ruble did not allow the Moscow Exchange index to show significant dynamics - at the end of Monday, the Moscow Exchange index increased by a symbolic 0.03%, to 3207 points, the RTS dollar index increased by 1.8% to 1142 points. The growth leaders on Monday were the shares of RusAgro, CIAN and OZON; the metallurgical sector finished the day worse than the market. Oil prices rose on rumors that countriesundefined OPEC+ may further reduce production and also extend production restrictions.

On Tuesday, the market continued to grow - the Moscow Exchange index increased by 0.35%, to 3218 points, the RTS index increased by 1%, to 1154 points. OZON shares looked better than the market, growing amid expectations of an increase in marketplace revenue due to Black Friday and pre-New Year sales. The shares of Tatneft were also among the growth leaders - the company’s board of directors recommended paying dividends for the third quarter of 2023 in the amount of 35.17 rubles. per share, the yield will be about 5.5%, the register will close on January 9. RusAgro and X5 RetailGroup, as well as Rostelecom shares, looked worse than the market. On Tuesday, trading in EuroTrans securities took place. As a result of the IPO, EuroTrans raised 13.5 billion rubles, the price of shares during the placement was 250 rubles per security, but on the first day of trading the securities fell in price by 11%.

On Wednesday, the Moscow Exchange index finished the day higher again, helped by the weakening of the ruble. undefined At the same time, the decline in oil prices had a restraining effect - the reason for pessimism was the news about the postponement of the meeting of OPEC+ ministers from November 26 to 30, which investors regarded as a signal of a lack of unity of opinion within the alliance. Statistics also added negativity - oil reserves in the United States increased by 8.701 million barrels, while the market expected an increase of 1.2 million barrels. Oil immediately fell to $78 per barrel of Brent, but still managed to recover to $82 per barrel. Among the events of Wednesday, Konstantin Tserazov noted the start of trading in Yuzhuralzoloto shares. As a result of the IPO, the company raised 7 billion rubles, placing it at the lower limit of 55 kopecks per share. The funds raised will be used to reduce the debt burden.

On the first day of trading, the company's shares soared 4%. The growth leaders were also shares of VTB, Sberbank and Severstal. The shares of another financial organization, TCS Group, grew on reporting results for the third quarter and for 9 months of 2023. undefined TCS Group's net profit under IFRS for 9 months of 2023 increased to RUB 60.2 billion. against 10.5 billion rubles. in the same period last year. Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov: “Market growth will be restrained by cheaper oil and the lack of strong drivers.” At the end of Wednesday's trading session, the Moscow Exchange index strengthened by 0.4% to 3,230 points, the RTS index decreased by 0.2% to 1,151 points.

The Russian market spent Thursday without reference to the US market, which was on holiday on the occasion of Thanksgiving. Brent oil quotes fell below $81 per barrel; in the absence of ideas for growth, the market spent the day moving sideways. At the end of Thursday's trading session, the Moscow Exchange index fell by 0.30% to 3,221 points, and the RTS index lost 0.26%, dropping to 1,148 points. Papers of Norilsk Nickel, PhosAgro and Magnit looked better than the market. The underdog of the day was Polymetal shares on the news that the company plans to conduct a new exchange of shares blocked as a result of EU sanctions for new ones issued on undefined AIFC Exchange. Investors fear that after the exchange Polymetal may be delisted from the Moscow Exchange, explained Konstantin Tserazov.

On Friday, the market continued to consolidate at the levels achieved, declining moderately at the end of the day - the Moscow Exchange index fell by 0.03% to 3219 points, and the RTS index weakened by 0.5% to 1143 points. Despite the rebound in oil prices and the weakening of the ruble, the growth of the Moscow Exchange index was restrained by the mixed dynamics of external exchanges and the caution of market participants ahead of the weekend. Polymetal shares continued to decline. The securities of the Fix Price and OZON marketplaces, as well as the shares of Unipro, looked worse than the market. The leaders of the day were shares of Magnit, Yandex, Tatneft and RusHydro.

From corporate news, Konstantin Tserazov highlighted the message from VTB Bank - in October the bank earned 26.8 billion rubles according to IFRS, and 403 billion rubles in 10 months. At the same time, VTB improved its profit forecast for this year to over 430 billion rubles. In 2024, VTB's profit could be 300-400 undefined billion rubles, first deputy chairman of the bank Dmitry Pyanov told reporters. This week, market movements will be shaped by geopolitics and corporate news, as well as macrostatistics, oil and ruble dynamics. Among the events of the current week, Konstantin Tserazov recommends paying attention to the opening of financial results under IFRS for the third quarter of 2023 of RusHydro on Tuesday, November 28; on Wednesday, November 29, financial results under IFRS for the third quarter of 2023 will be presented by Aeroflot.

On Thursday, November 30, a meeting of OPEC+ ministers will be held, at which new restrictive measures on oil production may be adopted. In addition, Thursday is the last day to be included in the register of shareholders entitled to receive Positive Group dividends for 9 months of 2023, Rostelecom dividends for 2022 and Seligdar dividends for 9 months of 2023. Among the important macro statistics, it is worth paying attention to the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board released on Tuesday in the US, on Wednesday undefined Germany will publish a preliminary consumer price index, and the US will release its second GDP estimate for the third quarter. Thursday will be the busiest day for important statistics - in the morning China will release business activity indices in the service sector and in industry, Germany will report on retail sales for November, the eurozone will present data on the unemployment rate and the preliminary consumer price index. In the afternoon, price indices of consumer spending in the United States for October will be released, as well as data on personal spending and personal income.

On Friday, the industrial business activity index for various countries will be published. “The domestic currency is losing support in the form of the tax period, the dynamics of the strengthening of the ruble is slowing down, which will have a positive impact on the shares of exporters. On the other hand, market growth will be constrained by falling oil prices and the lack of strong drivers. The most likely scenario for the development of events this week is continued consolidation near the achieved undefined levels and sideways movement,” concludes Konstantin Tserazov, former senior vice president of Otkritie Bank.