Konstantin Tserazov: “You shouldn’t expect any strong dynamics from Russian indices”

2023-11-22 19:20:11 Время чтения 12 мин 846

What happened on the securities market from November 13 to 17, and what you should pay attention to in the coming week, says in our interview the former senior vice president of Otkritie Bank, economist Konstantin Tserazov.

The market opened on Monday in the «red zone» — the reason for this, according to Konstantin Tserazov, was a decrease in oil prices and a moderately negative environment on external markets. However, oil soon recovered its morning losses, the indices turned around, and traded in a slight positive all day. Oil prices were positively influenced by the OPEC report, in which the cartel raised its forecast for oil consumption in 2023 by 5% to 2.46 million barrels per day. Despite certain pressure from external markets and the strengthening of the ruble, the indices resisted correction. Good reports were presented by RusAgro and Moscow Exchange.

The net profit of RusAgro according to RAS showed an increase in the third quarter by 14.5 times to 25.334 billion rubles. Revenue increased by 31%, to 71.674 billion rubles. Moscow Exchange reported for the third quarter an increase in commission revenue by 60.9%, to 14.37 billion rubles, net interest income increased by 21.8%. Adjusted net profit increased by 29.3% to RUB 13.31 billion.undefined However, the market was expecting stronger results. I was disappointed by the report of Segezha, which reported a loss for 9 months at the level of 10.89 billion rubles. against profit of 7.02 billion rubles. a year earlier. Among the day’s leaders were shares of Rostelecom, Sberbank, Rosseti, MTS, and Polyus. Segezha, Seligdar, Unipro and Positive Group looked worse than the market. At the end of Monday, the Moscow Exchange index rose by 0.15% to 3248 points, the RTS dollar index — by 0.86% to 1116 points.

Tuesday was marked by a correction — at the end of the trading session, the Moscow Exchange index lost 1.1%, dropping to 3212 points, and the RTS index lost a symbolic 0.04%, amounting to 1116 points. Among the leaders of the day, Yandex shares stood out against the backdrop of the agency’s message Reuters that the Dutch Yandex NV plans to sell not only a controlling stake, but also all Russian assets, and to do this before the end of the year. This step is positive for the Russian division, explained Konstantin Tserazov. Trading opens on the Russian market on Wednesday undefined again took place in negative territory against the backdrop of another strengthening of the ruble and falling oil prices. However, by the end of the day the market recovered its losses and turned positive. «The strengthening of the ruble continues, which is facilitated by the order on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters and the increase in the rate by the Bank of Russia to 15%,» explains Konstantin Tserazov.

Following the results of Wednesday’s trading, the Moscow Exchange index increased by 0.1% to 3,215 points, the RTS index increased by 1.6%, to 1,134 points. The Ministry of Economic Development reported alarming statistics on inflation — by November 13, annual inflation in the Russian Federation accelerated to 7. 16%, weekly inflation was 0.23%. At the same time, according to Rosstat, the Russian Federation’s GDP grew in the third quarter by 5.5% in annual terms. External markets were trading in the green zone under the influence of positive macro statistics from the United States — the growth rate of consumer prices in the United States in October fell to 3.2% in annual terms from 3.7% in September. In October, consumer prices did not change, although an increase of 0.1% was expected. Core inflation undefined which does not take into account the dynamics of food and energy prices, slowed to 4% from 4.1% a month earlier. The Board of Directors of Rosneft recommended dividends in the amount of 30.77 rubles. per share based on the results of 9 months of 2023.

The registry is scheduled to close on January 11, 2024. Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov: «There are no strong drivers for growth now, and, according to my forecasts, the market will move sideways.» On Thursday, under the influence of moderately negative sentiment and mixed dynamics on external markets and the lack of ideas for growth, Russian indices ended the day with a slight decline. At the end of the day, the Moscow Exchange index lost 0.81%, falling to 3189 points, and the RTS index weakened by 0.44%, to 1129 points. Among the leaders of the day were Polymetal, Ozon and VK, while Ros Agro, Seligdar and Surgutneftegaz finished the day in the red. MTS reporting disappointed investors — the company reported a decrease in net profit in the third quarter by 27.1% in annual terms, to 9 billion undefined rubles The results of the visit of the head of China to the United States disappointed investors — in fact, the heads of the two powers did not reach any serious agreements, while Biden said that he considers Xi Jinping a dictator. Oil also did not add optimism to Russian investors — against the backdrop of reports of an increase in reserves in the United States, oil prices dropped to $78.07 per barrel. On Friday, Russian indicators finished the day in different directions — the Moscow Exchange index increased by 0.54% to 3206 points, and the RTS index fell by 0.63% to 1122 points.

The Moscow Exchange index was supported by oil, which recovered the fall of the previous day, as well as the ruble. weakened on Friday above the level of 90 rubles. for a dollar. The leaders of Friday’s growth were shares of the oil and gas sector — Surgutneftegaz, Tatneft, Rosneft, Lukoil. The securities of VK, TCS Group, Norilsk Nickel, and Magnit finished the session in positive territory. The shares of ALROSA and MTS performed worse than the market. As a result, Russian indices ended the week in different directions — the Moscow Exchange ruble index decreased by undefined 1.1%, to 3206 points, and the RTS dollar index rose by 1.3%, to 1122 points. The market, according to Konstantin Tserazov, was pressed by the strong ruble and falling oil prices, as well as geopolitical uncertainty. The reason for the decline in oil prices, in turn, was the weakening of the risks of escalation of the Middle East conflict, fears of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, as well as the active growth of oil reserves in the United States.

The decline in oil prices gives reason to believe that at the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for November 26, the alliance will support another production cut, the economist notes. Regarding the events of the current week, Konstantin Tserazov recommends that investors pay attention to the publication of financial results under IFRS for the third quarter of 2023 by CIAN, TCS Group and VUSH Holding. This week will be short on the US market — on Thursday the American markets go on holiday on the occasion of Thanksgiving, and on November 24, due to Black Friday, a shortened session will take place on the NYSE and NASDAQ.

Therefore the environment will become undefined the busiest day in terms of statistics — the US will publish data on oil reserves, orders for durable goods, and initial claims for unemployment benefits. In addition, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be released. On the same day, a preliminary assessment of the consumer confidence index in the eurozone will be released, and Russia will announce the producer price index.

On Thursday, Germany and the EU will publish indices of business activity in industry and services; on Friday, investors will get acquainted with data from the German indices of economic expectations IFO and IFO business climate, as well as the European index of business activity in industry and services Markit. «You shouldn’t expect any strong dynamics from Russian indices this week — a strong ruble is holding back the market’s attempts to grow. In addition, the market is pressed by uncertainty associated with a possible rate increase by the Bank of Russia against the backdrop of rising inflation, and geopolitical risks. Investors are nervous about waiting undefined new sanctions restrictions against Russia from the EU, whose authorities are discussing a new, 12th package. There are currently no strong drivers for growth, and, according to my forecasts, the market will move sideways,» concludes Konstantin Tserazov, former senior vice president of Otkritie Bank.