Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov: “February will not be boring for investors”

2024-02-08 18:32:12 Время чтения 11 мин 520

The former senior vice president of Otkritie Bank, economist Konstantin Tserazov, shared his observations of events in the Russian IT sector in the week from January 29 to February 2 and on the Russian securities market in our interview.

The Russian indicator finally managed to interrupt the two-week sideways movement and scheduled the opening of the movement at levels above 3200 points. During the week from January 29 to February 2, 2024, the Moscow Exchange information technology industry index grew by 2.1%, while the Moscow Exchange index grew by 1.5% over the same period. In general, the domestic market, even despite the low activity and consolidation sentiments of participants, managed to end January on a positive note - the Moscow Exchange index grew by 3.7% in the first month of the year, the RTS - by 3.9%, notes Konstantin Tserazov. Of course, Yandex has become one of the main recent newsmakers in the IT sector, and in the market as a whole.

The company's shares rose in price on expectationsundefined the most important corporate events - redomiciliation, share exchange, as well as news on the publication of financial statements. The intrigue was resolved with the news on Monday, February 5, about the sale of the Yandex business to the Dutch Yandex N.V. for 475 billion rubles. consortium of investors. Yandex N.V. will cease to be the parent company of the group. The new parent company of Yandex will be the International Joint Stock Company (ICAO) Yandex, whose shares will be traded on the Moscow Exchange.

The main owner of MCAO "Yandex" will be the closed mutual fund "Consortium.First" led by Yandex managers. In addition to them, the consortium has four more shareholders - the structure of Alexander Chachav, entrepreneur and founder of the venture fund LETA Capital; structure of Pavel Prass, General Director of one of the largest specialized depositories “INFINITUM”; structure of the LUKOIL group; structure of Alexander Ryazanov, a multidisciplinary investor and entrepreneur. None of the shareholders has a controlling interest.

"Consortium.First" undefined will be able to nominate six out of ten members of the board of directors of MKAO Yandex. Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov: “In general, the year promises to also bring new openings in terms of placements - in 2024, the Moscow Exchange expects more than 20 IPO and SPO transactions, although everything, of course, will depend on the state of the market.” Yandex will retain the businesses, services and assets of the Yandex N.V. group. with the exception of foreign startups (Nebius, Toloka, Avride and TripleTen) and a data center in Finland. Yandex will provide Yandex N.V. limited rights to use part of its technologies until the end of 2024. Until July 31, 2024 Yandex N.V. will change its name and stop using Yandex brands. The transaction for the sale of Yandex business must be approved by the meeting of shareholders of Yandex N.V. and regulatory authorities. Approximately half of the 475 billion rubles will be paid in cash.

The deal is scheduled to be closed in the second half of this year. Speaking about events in the IT sector over the week, Konstantin Tserazov noted good results, undefined reported by Astra Group of Companies - shipments in 2023 increased by 75% year-on-year, reaching a record level in the entire history of the company of 11.2 billion rubles due to active business expansion, development of ecosystem products and services. The number of unique clients for the year exceeded 22.5 thousand, which is 41% higher than the level of 2022. Positive Technologies' results also did not disappoint investors. According to preliminary data, Positive Technologies’ shipments at the end of 2023 increased by 75% and amounted to 26 billion rubles.

The company noted that the final value of actually paid shipments in 2023 will be from 25 to 26 billion rubles, the expected management consensus forecast is 25.3 billion rubles. For comparison, in 2022 the volume of paid shipments was 14.5 billion rubles. The results of Positive Technologies are within the forecast announced by management in November 2023 - from 22.5 to 27.5 billion rubles. according to the company, “net profit margin excluding capitalized expenses (NIC) undefined by the end of 2023 it is planned to be at least 30%. Positive Technologies' dividend policy assumes payments to shareholders in the amount of 50 to 100% of NIC. Thus, the company plans to increase its dividend potential and remain one of the few technology companies demonstrating high growth rates and regularly paying dividends to its co-owners.” In addition, the Russian IT sector will soon be replenished with a new strong player - the developer of software for the financial sector, Diasoft, announced its intention to conduct an initial public offering. The company plans to go public in February 2024. According to the company, the price range for the placement is set at 4,000 rubles to 4,500 rubles per share. Thus, the company is valued at 40-45 billion rubles, the amount of funds raised through an IPO could be up to 4.14 billion rubles.

The company also reported that, based on the results of the IPO, the share of the group's shares in free float (free-float) undefined will amount to up to 800 thousand shares, that is, 8% of the number of outstanding and issued securities. The main part will consist of shares issued as part of an additional issue of 500 thousand or 5% of the existing authorized capital. At the same time, current shareholders will offer part of their shares for placement - up to 300 thousand securities, that is, 3% of the authorized capital. The company noted that the funds raised during the IPO will be used to implement a long-term growth strategy, while ensuring higher volumes of dividend payments in the coming years. In addition, the placement will allow the company to implement a motivation program for the company’s employees, increase brand awareness and create liquidity of shares on the Moscow Exchange. The collection of applications will begin on February 7, 2024 and will tentatively end on February 14, 2024.

The Moscow Exchange has admitted Diasoft shares to trading on February 15. In general, the year promises to also bring new openings in terms of placements. In 2023, 9 IPOs and 4 SPOs took place on the exchange, and in 2024 undefined The Moscow Exchange expects more than 20 IPO and SPO transactions, although everything, of course, will depend on the state of the market, says Konstantin Tserazov. The Softline Group announced the acquisition of a stake in the IT business of the R.Partner group of companies, a diversified group of companies with more than 32 years of experience in the Russian IT market and head office in Khabarovsk, providing a full range of services from system integration to telecommunications and engineering systems . Softline will become the owner of a share in the IT part of the business of the R.Partner group, which includes the development of critical infrastructure solutions of Russian and foreign production, configuration, deep integration and full support, equipment repair services from leading Russian and foreign vendors, supply and configuration of software products, round-the-clock technical support and maintenance, as well as design and construction of life support systems, energy supply and other systems of buildings and data centers. As the company noted, the deal will allow undefined Softline, in synergy with R.Partner, will create a multi-purpose IT cluster in the Far Eastern Federal District. “Dividend stories will be the main driver for the market in February. In addition, the next corporate reporting season starts in February. So February will not be boring for investors,” says former senior vice president of Otkritie Bank, economist Konstantin Tserazov.